April 20, 2001
by sjvn01
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Are Trade-Shows Worth Your Time?

I’ve just spent three weeks speaking at as many trade shows. I did my act at a small DTR Business Systems reseller show in Vegas; a middling Seybold show in Boston, with 1,500 guests; and the 70,000-attendee Spring Comdex in Chicago. Guess which show had, by far, the happiest and most satisfied attendees?

If you guessed the DTR show, with about 80 resellers and integrators, you;d be right. Oh, it wasn’t all sweetness and light:

The DTR people, who base their businesses largely on SCO Open Server, were desperate for answers about the Caldera/SCO merger, since approved by the SEC. But at least they got some answers, and a chance to talk one-on-one with their peers as well as with bigwigs from their distributors and vendors.

Fast-forward to Spring Comdex. Key3Media claimed there were 70,000 people there. I didn’t see them. The show floor was tiny; and the jokes that the Waste Expo trade show for the trash business, right across the hall, was more interesting weren’t very funny, because they were true.Off the show floor, things were worse. Many conference speakers simply didn’t show up, leaving their audiences in the lurch.

But, wait, there’s more. Spring Comdex’s ASP Summit was a joke. The forlorn free-lunch ballroom had only two tables occupied. While my ASP (Application Service Provider) panel mates at Seybold argued that the ASP model was coming into its own, you sure couldn’t tell it from Spring Comdex.

It wasn’t just there, either. SP senior editor Fred Aun tells me that ISPCon speakers also stood up their audiences. At least at Seybold, the speakers came and met expectations.If you’re counting, that’ s two out of four trade shows that made the grade. Fifty percent is an unbelievable average for hitting a baseball, but it’s lousy for everything else.

In general, trade shows are going downhill. Some of it is the sour economy. Almost no major vendors, for example, thought it worth their time and money to have a booth at Spring Comdex.At the end of it, I’m left asking: What the heck is the point of going to trade shows these days?

Networking and making deals have always been the best reason to go. If you want to do that, you’re better off going to small, specialized shows like DTR’s. You’ll have a much better chance of finding someone who actually wants to do business.

People also used to go to learn about technology and business. But now it looks like you’vve only got about a two-in-four chance to see the “experts.” Frankly, I’m surprised conference attendees at Spring Comdex weren’t demanding their money back.

Another argument was that you went to trade shows to see the latest in technology. Forget that. If you want to see the best, you’re better off reading this magazine, eWeek or PC Magazine. That way, you get your information all nicely prepackaged, and you don’t have to pay $500 in airfare for the privilege.

First published in Ziff-Davis‘ Sm@rt Partner

February 27, 2001
by sjvn01
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The RIAA’s billion dollar blunder

As everyone who gives darn about music and technology knows, Napster offered the music industry a billion bucks over the next five years if they would, pretty please with sugar on top, not sue them out of existence. The music business, represented by the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) replied, “Hell no!”

Well, actually they used other words, but it doesn’t take an English professor to figure out their real message. There were catcalls saying that Napster’s announcement was only a public relations move, without any business plan merit. But what the recording companies really wanted was nothing less than to put Napster out of business, while whacking turncoat recording publisher and Napster-supporter Bertelsmann along the way.

Of course, the recording industry is right about problems with Napster plans. What they don’t get though, is that it’s also the last, best deal, they’re ever going to see.

The RIAA is acting like Napster, the company, is the enemy. It’s not. It’s also not Napster’s peer-to-peer technology, although that plays a much larger role. The recording industry’s real enemy is its own stuck-in-the-80s attitude. They can’t see that their old business model is dying and that to thrive in the 2000s, they must embrace digital music transfer technology. Peer-to-peer plus the Internet means a musical distribution revolution as big as the shift from LPs to CDs. Heck, what the music biz big shots should be doing is buying into Napster and co-opting it as fast as they can.

Why? It’s simple. Let’s say Napster, the company, goes down for good sometime soon. Will that stop people from trading music on the Net? No, it won’t even stop Napster, the program.

The genie is out of the bottle. Napster-style programs that use non-Napster company registered servers such as Napigator and Opennap Network are already running. Turn off the Napster servers, and the technically adept won’t even notice the switchover. It will take the rest of the Napster user community about two weeks. Similar peer-to-peer file sharing programs like The Freenet Project and Gnutella and its descendents BearShare, Gnotella and LimeWire will also continue to let people trade MP3 files with complete anonymity.

And, listen up RIAA; none of these new programs rely on centralised servers, management or even a company. When no one’s in charge, there’s no one to serve cease and desist orders to, no network of servers to be shut down. Here’s the important part: with no Napster, there’s no one left to make a deal with. Instead, there will be a dozen or more programs thinking around undercutting your old business plan even more effectively than Napster did.

In theory the RIAA companies are trying to create their own tamper-proof music exchange system with the Secure Digital Music Initiative (SDMI). But there’s a bunch of problems with this. First, the RIAA doesn’t really know how to go about implementing such a system. If they did, Napster would have never stood a chance in the first place. Secondly, the secure system will be quickly broken and the songs will soon show up on Opennap and Gnutella. And finally, the companies show few signs of having a business plan to put up their own music network in the first place.

No, all in all, the RIAA would like to pretend that the only way music can be distributed is on tape and CDs. It’s too bad for them those days are as over as the days of 8-track tapes.

What they should be doing is making the new digital music transfer age work for them. And to do that, they need Napster to be healthy, strong and part of their industry. With Napster providing the brand recognition and easily the world’s most popular song trading software, they could make the Napster billions and more. Bertelsmann understands that the music industry is profoundly changing, while the rest of the recording industry big wheels haven’t and that, within less than five years, will spell their doom.

A version of this story was first published in ZDNet.

February 3, 2001
by sjvn01
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Linux 2.4 is here, but some goodies are missing

Although the new bells and whistles are great, technology alone won’t guarantee success.

OK, Linux 2.4 can do serious enterprise computing lifting. With it, you can run up to 32 Pentium-class processors using symmetric multiprocessing (SMP). Come the day Itanium is really released, Linux will be the first operating system up and running on it, and youâ??ll be able to scale Itanium SMPs up to 64 processors.

The networking layer also is much more scalable, thanks to “wake-one” scheduling. That ensures that only one processor, instead of a gaggle of them, is listening for network traffic on one socket. Linux 2.4 has much better memory support, as well. Even 32-bit Intel processors running Linux 2.4 can address up to 64GB of memory. Thatâ??s not too shabby for all but the most-demanding database applications.

Some technical goodies are still absent. A journaling file system (JFS) is a necessity for an enterprise OS, and 2.4 doesnâ??t have one. But thatâ??s a minor detail. Come 2.4.1, which probably will be out in February, youâ??ll be able to easily deploy the ReisterFS JFS.

So whatâ??s Linux 2.4â??s problem? While the Linux network operating system is second only to the Windows 2000/NT family on Intel processors, according to IDC, to make the next step forward, Linux needs nontechnology goodies to convince CIOs to take the Linux plunge.

Hereâ??s what I think Linux needs to enable you to make a real run for contracts currently going to W2K/NT integrators. First, you need to educate decision makers about Linux and open source. Too many senior IT folks still think of open source as this scary thing that may come back and bite them with licensing problems.

Next, Linux value-added distributors and ISVs need to stick to open source and the Linux Standard Base. If Linux starts forking, itâ??s back to the Unix wars of the last two decades, and the only winner there was Microsoft.

Lately Iâ??ve begun to see signs that Linux vendors are getting more interested in proprietary Linux product add-ons. If that continues, we could see attempts to create proprietary Linux kernel programs and then Linux will be in a world of hurt.

Linux desperately needs serious management tools. Here, progress is being made. Caldera Systemsâ?? Volution looks pretty darn good for managing multiple servers, in my tests. Linuxcareâ??s Linux Managed Services also looks like an excellent service play. Finally, there are too many Linux certifications.

Red Hat has one, the Linux Professional Institute has one, and several training companies are pushing out other certifications. Linux needs one solid certification path that will be as well-known as an MCSE or CCIE.

If it gets all of those pieces into place, Linux will step beyond being a big business to become a big business.

A version of this story was first published in Ziff-Davis’ Sm@rt Partner.

January 8, 2001
by sjvn01
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Linux 2.4: It’s Here!

Latest and long awaited kernel is finally here and it will please the enthusiasts, but don’t rush to install on to your business servers.

It’s here! It’s here! Linux 2.4 has arrived and Linux fans are beside themselves with joy. If you have friends who love Linux you can forget about seeing them for the next week. They’ll be busy overloading broadband Internet connections downloading the new 2.4.0 kernel and compiling it.

Yes, it’s a great day for Linux enthusiasts. For users with personal systems, Linux 2.4 brings more device and Universal Serial Bus support. For administrators, Linux 2.4’s big news is that it makes Linux much more scalable. This going-on-a-year-late operating system is the one that should fulfill every Linux enthusiast’s–not to mention IBM’s–dream of Linux being a full-fledged enterprise operating system.

It just isn’t going to happen today — or this month — or this quarter.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m as pleased as punch that Linux 2.4 is here. I know where I’m going to be spending my time over the next few days. I’m going to be bringing my test bed Caldera 2.4 beta machine and two other test machines to 2.4 status.

What I’m not doing? And neither should businesses is taking my production Linux systems to 2.4. My VA Linux workstation running Red Hat 6.2 and my Corel PC are sticking with 2.2.x kernels. And on my production server I’m sticking with Caldera’s OpenLinux eServer 2.3 for now.

Why? Because, even after thousands, no, tens of thousands of programmers and beta testers have worked on 2.4, I know there will be bugs. Heck, I can read the Linux developers lists as well as anyone, I know there are bugs.

And, frankly, I don’t upgrade to any .0 release for exactly that reason.

For now, Linux 2.4 is for the adventuresome, the Linux lover — not someone whose bottom line depends on Linux. Besides, even after Linux 2.4 ages well, most users won’t get that much more from it anyway. Yes, Linux 2.4’s new device support is a win. But if you don’t have any of these devices on your PC, you’re not going to see much of an improvement.

So what’s the big deal then? The big deal is that Linux’s vastly improved support for clustering, multiple processors and memory are great news — for enterprise level servers. If you’re dealing with a basic Intel box as either workstation or server, Linux 2.4 isn’t that big a deal.

And if you do have top servers, you need more than just a high end kernel. You need programs that support the kernel’s new functionality, and those aren’t here yet.

Besides, if you’re serious about business Linux, you need the support of serious Linux vendors. Except for SuSE, they — Caldera Systems, Red Hat and TurboLinux–aren’t going to be releasing 2.4 kernels for their commercial products for a while yet.

To put it in terms of Microsoft operating systems, for most PC Linux users, the jump from a Linux 2.2.x to a 2.4 kernel will be similar to that from Windows 98 to Windows 98 Second Edition. Good, but no reason to spend the next 48 hours installing it unless you love the stuff with the passion. For server use, the Linux jump is much bigger; it’s like the leap from NT to W2K Advanced Server. But like Advanced Server, to get the most from it, you need the applications and support in place before making the jump.

The final answer is that while it’s exciting news for technologists, the Linux excitement for business deployments is still months away.

A version of this story was first published in Ziff Davis’ Sm@rt Partner.

December 8, 2000
by sjvn01
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IBM brings DB2 and WebSphere to mainframe Linux

IBM’s using Linux to deliver e-business on mainframes; may prove to be competition for Sun.

Yesterday, IBM took a bite out of Sun by replacing Scandinavia’s biggest telecomm and ISP Telia’s Sun Web-hosting servers with a single IBM mainframe S/390 G6 enterprise unit running SuSE Linux under the hood. Today, Big Blue is announcing that it’s bringing both its DB2 DBMS Enterprise Edition and Web application server software, WebSphere Advanced Edition, to mainframe Linux.

Scott Handy, IBM director of Linux Solutions Marketing, explains, “IBM has moved into Linux because of customer demand.” He adds that “traditionally, ISPs have used racks of servers,” like those from Sun, and “by addressing this with Linux Virtual Machines on a IBM mainframe, IBM will impact Sun.”

By bringing both DB2 and WebSphere to mainframe Linux, Handy points out that this brings e-commerce and e-business power to the mainframe. Specifically, he notes that on the extremely stable underpinning of the Virtual Machine operating system, those Linux driven applications enable developers to build complete soup-to-nuts e-solutions on a single machine. With one mainframe, a customer could run thousands of Virtual Linux servers that use WebSphere to design their Web interfaces, while using DB2 and IBM’s new IMS Connect to pull data directly out of DB2 databases, mainframe commercial-transaction systems, and older databases. IBM + Linux partners = customers

Customers wanting to use those services will be encouraged to go through IBM Global Services. The Linux partners–Red Hat, SuSE and TurboLinux–will be providing tightly integrated and bundled packages of their 390 Linuxes and the IBM software. For a revenue stream, the companies will be providing Level three support through Global Services. The Linux powers’ profit from the mainframe deals will come from revenue-sharing contracts with IBM.

But the Linux companies and their reseller partners aren’t limited to playing a supporting role. Paul McNamara, Red Hat’s VP of Products and Marketing, says that Red Hat expects “to have direct relations with some 390 customers where we’ll provide Level one through to three support.” McNamara also sees the possibility of “other customer deals, like configuration management and performance management, where Red Hat and its resellers would be the senior partners in a 390 deal.”

But where will the customers come from? McNamara thinks that a big selling point will be that with the combination of IBM and Linux, customers will like knowing that they can get applications that can grow on a single common operating system from Intel-based servers to IBM mainframes with every step in between also covered.

To that, Dan Kusnetzky, IDC’s VP of System Software Research adds, from a prepared statement, “Linux is seeing increasing usage as a part of basic IT infrastructure at many organizations. IBM has positioned itself well to be considered one of the leading suppliers in this emerging market.” In short, IBM supported Linux is becoming part of the enterprise IT infrastructure already. Horizontal, as well as vertical

IBM isn’t just focusing on the potent promise of mainframe Linux. The company also announced that DB2 Universal Database for Linux would be made available on Intel-based clusters. WebSphere, already available on single Intel CPU Linux, also will be supported on the clusters. That way, a company can scale either vertically up to RISC or mainframe architectures, or horizontally on existing Intel servers. Here Handy explains that the new database will be supported not only by Red Hat, SuSE and TurboLinux, but also by Caldera Systems. Unlike the other Big Four Linux vendors, Caldera, according to CEO Ransom Love, has opted to focus on the Intel side of its business. But, according to Handy, IBM is still partnering with Caldera on the Intel platforms.

IBM also announced that the DB2 Universal Database for Linux will be available on December 15, with new WebSphere for Linux on Intel release on December 22, the mainframe, zSeries, version will be out on January 26, 2001.

That last date is optimistic for a full rollout. Only SuSE is currently shipping a 390 Linux. TurboLinux still promises one by the end of the year. Red Hat’s McNamara freely admits that Red Hat won’t be rolling out its mainframe Linux until quarter one 2001, and as for the bundled operating system, DBMS and Web application server, he expects that it won’t be out until the second quarter. IBM may be gunning for Sun, but Sun will have time to reload.

A version of this story was first published in Sm@rt Partner.

October 13, 2000
by sjvn01
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Sun Buys Cobalt Networks

And a way into the Linux market.

Sun Microsystems is presenting its stock-for-stock merger with leading Linux network appliance maker Cobalt Networks as primary being a way to accelerate Sun”s entry into the server appliance marketplace.

That\’s one way to take it. The other, while not mentioned by Sun in its press release, is that it gives Sun an instant entry into the Linux market. Unlike the quiet Solaris on Intel efforts, this move gives Sun not only its first Linux products, but it also marks the first time that Sun has made a splashy entry into the non-Sun hardware product market.

Under the merger agreement, every Cobalt common stock share will be converted into 0.5 Sun shares. In total, that adds up to an aggregate purchase price of about $2-billion.

This deal is being accounted as a purchase. Sun expects to close the deal in Sun\’s fiscal 2000 second quarter, which ends Dec. 31, 2000. The closing of the acquisition is subject to governmental approvals, Cobalt shareholder approval and customary closing conditions. Once the merger is done, Sun representatives say that Cobalt will become the server appliance business unit of Sun’s Network Service Provider organization under Sun executive VP John McFarlane. According to Ed Zander, Sun’s president and COO, in a statement, “Today we\’re acquiring Cobalt to establish ourselves in low-end server appliances and immediately jump into the marketplace with a proven, world-class product offering.” He added, “We think the demand for these high-volume, turnkey devices will explode in the next couple of years. Cobalt is our bet for the future.”

Continuing Cobalt\’s lawsuit against Apple, however, doesn\’t seem to be in Sun\’s plans. The suit has been based on Cobalt claims that Apple\’s G4 Cube apes the look of its Qube server appliance and that violated its trademarks.

Also–because of its announcement last week of the UltraSPARC-IIe, a 64-bit SPARC processor for low-end embedded devices–it is unclear how Sun is laying its money down in the appliance space. No mention was made on how this low-end (in volume, the 400MHz version will sell for US$145) chip will fit into Sun\’s new plans for low-end servers and network appliances. The Cobalt products, like its flagship product, the Qube 2, use 64-bit MIPs CPUs.

Stephen DeWitt, Cobalt\’s president and CEO proclaims that, “Cobalt’s world-class products are a perfect complement to Sun”s industry-leading server offerings. Our customers will benefit through access to the full range of Sun\’s engineering, sales, marketing and service resources.”

Matthew Szulik, Red Hat CEO, also is happy about the deal. “This is terrific news. We seen this as a validation of the open-source model since Cobalt is a Red Hat Linux customer.”

In early post announcement trading, Sun sank slightly. Cobalt\’s stock, however, exploded upward almost 14 points, more than 33 percent, on the news.

A version of this story first appeared in Sm@rt Partner.

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