Yes, yes, we know Microsoft rules; no other company will ever knock it off the top of the software mountain, etc., etc. History tells us that no business is immune to the decline of age and Microsoft is proving to be no exception.
You’ll find the latest proof of this at Net Applications’ January 2009 Web site usage numbers by operating system. There, you’ll see that Windows is continuing its slow fall from total desktop operating system domination.
Windows’ fall has been happening now since early 2008. Microsoft was running scared well before then though as Jim Allchin, former head of Microsoft’s Vista program, said in 2002, “we are not on a path to win against Linux.”
Then, in December 2008, Windows dropped below 90% of the desktop market for the first time since Windows 98 appeared. Now, Windows is down to 88.26%. Mac OS X is within touching distance of 10% and Linux is still hanging in there with 0.83%.
The news is even more dramatic if you look at Web browsers. Internet Explorer has been dropping at about .6% a month over the last twelve months. Internet Explorer is now down to 67.55%. The winners? Open-source’s application darling, Firefox with 21.53%, followed by Safari at 8.29% and Google’s open-source Chrome popping up over 1% at 1.12%.
It’s no coincidence that Microsoft just had its first major layoffs ever. Certainly, part of that is the economy, but on the other hand, Microsoft was in decline long before the market collapsed. Microsoft is showing its age, and it’s not pretty.
6 responses so far ↓
1 codfather // Feb 4, 2009 at 4:30 am
I have been thinking exactly the same for over a year now. It reminds me very much of the IBM decline, they made a couple of really big mistakes with the PS2 and OS2, and look what happened to them. I think MS’s big issues were excessive release cycles and Vista I & II. Apple and Linux are not going away anytime soon, and once Android is out in the wild, we shall see the true decline of this once large monopoly.
As with all of these large companies, MS has made an awful lot of enemies on the way up, and they all will be looking to stick the knife in on the way down, so they can’t expect any sympathy.
To me though , I only see this as a very refreshing thing, as there is now genuine choice around. I can choose which way I want to drive my IT strategy , instead of selecting from a choice of one. MS will not go bust, they will just shrink like IBM did, and look to hold onto their strong areas. The landscape has changed for the better.
Nick
2 ronald // Feb 4, 2009 at 4:22 pm
I would think that the 3% decline for Microsoft during 2008 is more serious than it looks.
The 3% in numbers must be a lot more computers running MAC OS or Linux, since it not is just the 3% of the 2008 users. The 3% include also the 3-5 year old computers.
Not many Windows PC’s would have been reinstalled to MAC OS, so either Apple users have been using the Internet more in 2008 or the actual decline is as high as 15% for 2008.
Ronald
3 pogson // Feb 4, 2009 at 5:13 pm
Globally, GNU/Linux is doing much better than that and Mac OS is not doing that well. Mac OS is handicapped by being legal only for Apple’s hardware so it does not do very well in emerging markets where price is key. Apple’s figures on unit sales of Macs filed with the SEC indicate they make about 3% of all PCs. They would be in the top 5 if they really did have the share NetApplications suggests.
This means the population sampled by NetApplications is biased in some way, likely heavily into business in North America.
I think the declining number for that other OS is good, though because it is likely from M$’s most locked-in customers, those who believe they need to run this or that app which only runs on that other OS.
Assuming that other OS is at 88% and MacOS gets 3%, we are left with 9% for GNU/Linux, globally. I think it may be higher because it is very popular and growing quickly in BRIC countries.
4 stolennomenclature // Feb 4, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Microsoft in decline – how wonderful. Now where is that bottle of champagne. I hear the sound of corks popping all over the world.
By the way, is it only me that can hardly decipher the anti-spam phrase? Could’nt it be made a little clearer? Attempt 1.
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